Cumbernauld Colts 1–5 Penicuik Athletic

Cumbernauld Colts

1 – 5

Penicuik Athletic

9/21/2019

FA Cup · 1st RoundBroadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cumbernauld Colts15%

×Draw18%

Penicuik Athletic67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cumbernauld ColtsExpected goals in this matchPenicuik Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.33

Cumbernauld Colts

1.00

Penicuik Athletic

2.33

Penicuik Athletic creates 133% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cumbernauld Colts

1.00

Penicuik Athletic

2.67

allows per match

Cumbernauld Colts

2.00

Penicuik Athletic

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par

Penicuik Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbernauld Colts ↓

Penicuik Athletic →

0–04%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–44%

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Cumbernauld Colts or draw

33%

Cumbernauld Colts or Penicuik Athletic

82%

Draw or Penicuik Athletic

85%

Winning margin

Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+

Penicuik Athletic wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals

63%

Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals

26%

Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals

Penicuik Athletic 1+ goals

90%

Penicuik Athletic 2+ goals

67%

Penicuik Athletic 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)

18%

Penicuik Athletic (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cumbernauld Colts at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Penicuik Athletic away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cumbernauld Colts attack 1.00 + Penicuik Athletic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Penicuik Athletic attack 2.67 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cumbernauld Colts scores more

15%

level

18%

Penicuik Athletic scores more

67%

Penicuik Athletic at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Penicuik Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff