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Cumbernauld Colts vs Morton — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cumbernauld Colts
Cumbernauld Colts
FT
0 – 2
Morton
Morton
7/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Broadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cumbernauld Colts43%
×Draw27%
Morton30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbernauld Colts
1.38
Morton
1.09

Cumbernauld Colts creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cumbernauld Colts
2.33
Morton
0.86

allows per match

Cumbernauld Colts
1.33
Morton
0.43

finishing

Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par
Morton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbernauld Colts ↓

Morton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cumbernauld Colts or draw
70%
Cumbernauld Colts or Morton
73%
Draw or Morton
57%

Winning margin

Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+
21%
Morton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals
75%
Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals
40%
Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals
16%
Morton 1+ goals
66%
Morton 2+ goals
30%
Morton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)
59%
Morton (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbernauld Colts at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Morton away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbernauld Colts attack 2.33 + Morton defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Morton attack 0.86 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cumbernauld Colts scores more
43%
level
27%
Morton scores more
30%

Cumbernauld Colts at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cumbernauld Colts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cumbernauld Colts vs Morton

Morton beat Cumbernauld Colts 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2021.

The match was played at Broadwood Stadium in Cumbernauld.