Cumbernauld Colts 0–1 Dalbeattie Star

Cumbernauld Colts

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dalbeattie Star

9/17/2022

FA Cup · 1st RoundBroadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cumbernauld Colts45%

×Draw24%

Dalbeattie Star31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cumbernauld ColtsExpected goals in this matchDalbeattie Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.33

Cumbernauld Colts

1.67

Dalbeattie Star

1.33

Cumbernauld Colts creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

2.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Cumbernauld Colts

1.00

Dalbeattie Star

0.67

allows per match

Cumbernauld Colts

2.00

Dalbeattie Star

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par

Dalbeattie Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbernauld Colts ↓

Dalbeattie Star →

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cumbernauld Colts or draw

69%

Cumbernauld Colts or Dalbeattie Star

76%

Draw or Dalbeattie Star

55%

Winning margin

Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+

24%

Dalbeattie Star wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals

81%

Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals

50%

Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals

23%

Dalbeattie Star 1+ goals

74%

Dalbeattie Star 2+ goals

38%

Dalbeattie Star 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)

60%

Dalbeattie Star (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cumbernauld Colts at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Dalbeattie Star away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cumbernauld Colts attack 1.00 + Dalbeattie Star defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dalbeattie Star attack 0.67 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cumbernauld Colts scores more

45%

level

24%

Dalbeattie Star scores more

31%

Cumbernauld Colts at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cumbernauld Colts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Cumbernauld Colts 0–1 Dalbeattie Star

Dalbeattie Star beat Cumbernauld Colts 1-0 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Broadwood Stadium in Cumbernauld.

Cumbernauld Colts vs Dalbeattie Star — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Cup: Cumbernauld Colts 0–1 Dalbeattie Star