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Cumbernauld Colts vs Civil Service Strollers — FA Cup 2019

Cumbernauld Colts
Cumbernauld Colts
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Civil Service Strollers
Civil Service Strollers
9/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundBroadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cumbernauld Colts30%
×Draw22%
Civil Service Strollers48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbernauld Colts
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.93

Civil Service Strollers creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cumbernauld Colts
1.00
Civil Service Strollers
1.86

allows per match

Cumbernauld Colts
2.00
Civil Service Strollers
2.00

finishing

Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par
Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbernauld Colts ↓

Civil Service Strollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Cumbernauld Colts or draw
52%
Cumbernauld Colts or Civil Service Strollers
78%
Draw or Civil Service Strollers
70%

Winning margin

Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+
14%
Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals
78%
Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals
44%
Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals
19%
Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals
85%
Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals
57%
Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)
39%
Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbernauld Colts at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbernauld Colts attack 1.00 + Civil Service Strollers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Civil Service Strollers attack 1.86 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cumbernauld Colts scores more
30%
level
22%
Civil Service Strollers scores more
48%

Civil Service Strollers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Civil Service Strollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cumbernauld Colts vs Civil Service Strollers

Civil Service Strollers beat Cumbernauld Colts 3-0 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Broadwood Stadium in Cumbernauld.