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Cumbernauld Colts vs Buckie Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Cumbernauld Colts
Cumbernauld Colts
FT
1 – 1
Buckie Thistle
Buckie Thistle
9/17/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundBroadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cumbernauld Colts25%
×Draw23%
Buckie Thistle52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbernauld Colts
1.21
Buckie Thistle
1.82

Buckie Thistle creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cumbernauld Colts
1.00
Buckie Thistle
1.64

allows per match

Cumbernauld Colts
2.00
Buckie Thistle
1.43

finishing

Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par
Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbernauld Colts ↓

Buckie Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cumbernauld Colts or draw
48%
Cumbernauld Colts or Buckie Thistle
77%
Draw or Buckie Thistle
75%

Winning margin

Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+
10%
Buckie Thistle wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals
70%
Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals
34%
Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals
12%
Buckie Thistle 1+ goals
84%
Buckie Thistle 2+ goals
54%
Buckie Thistle 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)
33%
Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbernauld Colts at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbernauld Colts attack 1.00 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cumbernauld Colts scores more
25%
level
23%
Buckie Thistle scores more
52%

Buckie Thistle at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Buckie Thistle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Cumbernauld Colts 1–1 Buckie Thistle

Cumbernauld Colts and Buckie Thistle drew 1-1 in FA Cup on September 17, 2021.

The match was played at Broadwood Stadium in Cumbernauld.