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Cumberland United vs Pontian Eagles — South Australia State League 1 2021

Cumberland United
Cumberland United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pontian Eagles
Pontian Eagles
4/5/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 5A. A. Bailey Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cumberland United77%
×Draw14%
Pontian Eagles9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumberland United
2.83
Pontian Eagles
0.89

Cumberland United creates 218% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cumberland United
1.93
Pontian Eagles
0.36

allows per match

Cumberland United
1.42
Pontian Eagles
3.73

finishing

Cumberland United+0.00on par
Pontian Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumberland United ↓

Pontian Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Cumberland United or draw
91%
Cumberland United or Pontian Eagles
86%
Draw or Pontian Eagles
23%

Winning margin

Cumberland United wins by 2+
56%
Pontian Eagles wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cumberland United 1+ goals
94%
Cumberland United 2+ goals
77%
Cumberland United 3+ goals
53%
Pontian Eagles 1+ goals
59%
Pontian Eagles 2+ goals
22%
Pontian Eagles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cumberland United (draw refunded)
89%
Pontian Eagles (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumberland United at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

Pontian Eagles away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumberland United attack 1.93 + Pontian Eagles defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.83

Pontian Eagles attack 0.36 + Cumberland United defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Cumberland United scores more
77%
level
14%
Pontian Eagles scores more
9%

Cumberland United at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Cumberland United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cumberland United vs Pontian Eagles

Cumberland United beat Pontian Eagles 3-1 in South Australia State League 1 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at A. A. Bailey Reserve in Adelaide.