Cumberland United 1–4 Playford City Patriots

Cumberland United

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Playford City Patriots

6/1/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 13A. A. Bailey Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cumberland United40%

×Draw23%

Playford City Patriots37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cumberland UnitedExpected goals in this matchPlayford City Patriots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.65

Cumberland United

1.71

Playford City Patriots

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 46 away

1.93

creates per match

1.87

1.42

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Cumberland United

1.93

Playford City Patriots

1.87

allows per match

Cumberland United

1.42

Playford City Patriots

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cumberland United+0.00on par

Playford City Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumberland United ↓

Playford City Patriots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Cumberland United or draw

63%

Cumberland United or Playford City Patriots

77%

Draw or Playford City Patriots

60%

Winning margin

Cumberland United wins by 2+

20%

Playford City Patriots wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cumberland United 1+ goals

82%

Cumberland United 2+ goals

51%

Cumberland United 3+ goals

24%

Playford City Patriots 1+ goals

81%

Playford City Patriots 2+ goals

49%

Playford City Patriots 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Cumberland United (draw refunded)

52%

Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumberland United at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

Playford City Patriots away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumberland United attack 1.93 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Playford City Patriots attack 1.87 + Cumberland United defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cumberland United scores more

40%

level

23%

Playford City Patriots scores more

37%

Cumberland United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cumberland United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff