Cumbayá 1–1 Universidad Catolica: Result & Stats

Cumbayá

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Universidad Catolica

10/18/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 10Estadio Municipal La Cocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cumbayá33%

×Draw28%

Universidad Catolica38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CumbayáExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.21

Cumbayá

1.11

Universidad Catolica

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 131 away

0.98

creates per match

1.41

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Cumbayá

0.98

Universidad Catolica

1.41

allows per match

Cumbayá

1.00

Universidad Catolica

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw

62%

Cumbayá or Universidad Catolica

72%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

67%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+

13%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals

67%

Cumbayá 2+ goals

30%

Cumbayá 3+ goals

10%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

70%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

34%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)

47%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.25 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 0.98 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Universidad Catolica attack 1.41 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cumbayá scores more

33%

level

28%

Universidad Catolica scores more

38%

Universidad Catolica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff