Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cumbayá vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2026

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
11/5/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 12Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cumbayá45%
×Draw30%
Orense SC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.21
Orense SC
0.84

Cumbayá creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 104 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
0.98
Orense SC
0.69

allows per match

Cumbayá
1.00
Orense SC
1.43

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
74%
Cumbayá or Orense SC
70%
Draw or Orense SC
55%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
20%
Orense SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
70%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
34%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
12%
Orense SC 1+ goals
57%
Orense SC 2+ goals
21%
Orense SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
64%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 0.98 + Orense SC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Orense SC attack 0.69 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cumbayá scores more
45%
level
30%
Orense SC scores more
26%

Cumbayá at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Cumbayá 0–1 Orense SC

Orense SC beat Cumbayá 1-0 in Liga Pro on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.