Cumbayá 1–1 Mushuc Runa SC: Result & Stats

Cumbayá

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mushuc Runa SC

7/31/2022

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 4Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cumbayá47%

×Draw27%

Mushuc Runa SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CumbayáExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.97

Cumbayá

1.41

Mushuc Runa SC

0.97

Cumbayá creates 45% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 117 away

0.98

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Cumbayá

0.98

Mushuc Runa SC

0.95

allows per match

Cumbayá

1.00

Mushuc Runa SC

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw

74%

Cumbayá or Mushuc Runa SC

73%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

53%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+

23%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals

76%

Cumbayá 2+ goals

41%

Cumbayá 3+ goals

17%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

62%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

25%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)

65%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 0.98 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cumbayá scores more

47%

level

27%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

26%

Cumbayá at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff