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Cumbayá vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
11/26/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 14Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cumbayá32%
×Draw29%
LDU de Quito39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.06
LDU de Quito
1.19

LDU de Quito creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 136 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
0.98
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Cumbayá
1.00
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
61%
Cumbayá or LDU de Quito
71%
Draw or LDU de Quito
68%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
13%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
65%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
29%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
9%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
70%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
33%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
45%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 0.98 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cumbayá scores more
32%
level
29%
LDU de Quito scores more
39%

LDU de Quito at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Cumbayá 1–2 LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Cumbayá 2-1 in Liga Pro on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.