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Cumbayá vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
3/7/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 2Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cumbayá31%
×Draw28%
Independiente del Valle41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.07
Independiente del Valle
1.28

Independiente del Valle creates 20% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 134 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
0.98
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Cumbayá
1.00
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
59%
Cumbayá or Independiente del Valle
72%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
69%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
12%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
66%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
29%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
9%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
72%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
37%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
43%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 0.98 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cumbayá scores more
31%
level
28%
Independiente del Valle scores more
41%

Independiente del Valle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Cumbayá 1–0 Independiente del Valle

Cumbayá beat Independiente del Valle 1-0 in Liga Pro on March 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.