Cumbayá 0–2 Gualaceo SC: Result & Stats

Cumbayá

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gualaceo SC

D. Ovando 85'

T. Donsanti 44'

4/30/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 7Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cumbayá48%

×Draw28%

Gualaceo SC24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CumbayáExpected goals in this matchGualaceo SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.83

Cumbayá

1.32

Gualaceo SC

0.83

Cumbayá creates 59% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 114 away

1.30

creates per match

0.81

0.86

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Cumbayá

1.30

Gualaceo SC

0.81

allows per match

Cumbayá

0.86

Gualaceo SC

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Gualaceo SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw

76%

Cumbayá or Gualaceo SC

72%

Draw or Gualaceo SC

52%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+

23%

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals

73%

Cumbayá 2+ goals

38%

Cumbayá 3+ goals

15%

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

56%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

20%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)

67%

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.86 · 43 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.34 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 1.30 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Gualaceo SC attack 0.81 + Cumbayá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cumbayá scores more

48%

level

28%

Gualaceo SC scores more

24%

Cumbayá at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

69'

69'

85'

Cumbayá

Gualaceo

12

3

23

4

21

5

80

10

70

11

⚽

Ovando

32

⚽

32

14

2

4

6

10

8

11

5

16

21

Manager: D. Neculman

Cumbayá substitutes

7Padilla18Delgado27Ortíz3Allauca1Riego25Ortiz30Sarzosa50Montaño55Chalá

Manager: Cipriano

Gualaceo SC substitutes

14Alvarado99Pita15Salazar6Obando1Lemos7Caicedo9Cordara17Zumba30Romero

Match Recap: Cumbayá vs Gualaceo SC

Gualaceo SC beat Cumbayá 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 30, 2025.

Goals: T. Donsanti (44'), D. Ovando (85').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz in Quito.

Cumbayá vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cumbayá vs Gualaceo SC