Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cumbayá vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
L. Morales 84'
J. Cevallos 89' (pen)
4/21/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 9Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cumbayá38%
×Draw29%
Emelec33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.18
Emelec
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 131 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
0.98
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

Cumbayá
1.00
Emelec
1.37

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
67%
Cumbayá or Emelec
71%
Draw or Emelec
62%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
16%
Emelec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
69%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
33%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
12%
Emelec 1+ goals
66%
Emelec 2+ goals
30%
Emelec 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
53%
Emelec (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 0.98 + Emelec defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.18

Emelec attack 1.18 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cumbayá scores more
38%
level
29%
Emelec scores more
33%

Cumbayá at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Jackson Rodríguez
46'
A. Zapata← S. Rodríguez
58'
Carlos Monges
68'
D. Uquillas← E. Delgado
71'
Eddie Guevara
72'
J. Chalá← R. Caicedo
79'
D. Vera← J. Rojas
81'
H. Batalla← M. Díaz
83'
Janpol Morales
84'
L. Morales↳ H. Batalla
87'
Fernando Hidalgo
89'
K. Arce← L. Morales
89'
B. Palacios← J. Cevallos
89'
Á. Gracia← J. Rodríguez
89'
J. CevallosPenalty

Shots

4Cumbayá

Statistics

CumbayáEmelec
Overview
4Total Shots6
5Corners4
9Fouls10
Shots
4Total Shots6
3On Target3
1Off Target3
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Liga Pro: Cumbayá 1–1 Emelec

Cumbayá and Emelec drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on April 21, 2022.

Goals: L. Morales (84'), J. Cevallos (89' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.