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Cumbayá vs Duros del Balon — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Duros del Balon
Duros del Balon
A. Vera 76'
C. Espinola 53'
8/11/2021Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 27Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cumbayá49%
×Draw27%
Duros del Balon24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.42
Duros del Balon
0.91

Cumbayá creates 56% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
1.30
Duros del Balon
0.96

allows per match

Cumbayá
0.86
Duros del Balon
1.53

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
Duros del Balon+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Duros del Balon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
76%
Cumbayá or Duros del Balon
73%
Draw or Duros del Balon
51%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
24%
Duros del Balon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
76%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
41%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
17%
Duros del Balon 1+ goals
60%
Duros del Balon 2+ goals
23%
Duros del Balon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
67%
Duros del Balon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.86 · 43 matches

Duros del Balon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 1.30 + Duros del Balon defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Duros del Balon attack 0.96 + Cumbayá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cumbayá scores more
49%
level
27%
Duros del Balon scores more
24%

Cumbayá at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
C. Espinola
76'
A. Vera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Cumbayá 2–0 Duros del Balon

Cumbayá beat Duros del Balon 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 11, 2021.

Goals: C. Espinola (53'), A. Vera (76').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.