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Cumbayá vs Chacaritas — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chacaritas
Chacaritas
10/12/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Relegation Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cumbayá63%
×Draw22%
Chacaritas15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.88
Chacaritas
0.80

Cumbayá creates 135% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
1.26
Chacaritas
0.61

allows per match

Cumbayá
1.00
Chacaritas
2.50

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Chacaritas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
85%
Cumbayá or Chacaritas
78%
Draw or Chacaritas
37%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
37%
Chacaritas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
85%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
56%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
29%
Chacaritas 1+ goals
55%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
19%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
80%
Chacaritas (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 1.26 + Chacaritas defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Chacaritas attack 0.61 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cumbayá scores more
63%
level
22%
Chacaritas scores more
15%

Cumbayá at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Cumbayá 0–0 Chacaritas

Cumbayá and Chacaritas drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 12, 2025.