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Cultural Leonesa vs SD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
9/30/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cultural Leonesa51%
×Draw27%
SD Logroñés22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.44
SD Logroñés
0.85

Cultural Leonesa creates 69% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.41
SD Logroñés
0.79

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.91
SD Logroñés
1.47

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

SD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
78%
Cultural Leonesa or SD Logroñés
73%
Draw or SD Logroñés
49%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
25%
SD Logroñés wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
76%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
42%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
18%
SD Logroñés 1+ goals
57%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
21%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
70%
SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + SD Logroñés defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

SD Logroñés attack 0.79 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
51%
level
27%
SD Logroñés scores more
22%

Cultural Leonesa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cultural Leonesa 1–0 SD Logroñés

Cultural Leonesa beat SD Logroñés 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.