Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cultural Leonesa vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
Preview
15:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
4/18/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33
Big match
51%
Cultural Leonesa
model favours
51%26%23%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Cultural Leonesa51%
×Draw26%
Real Unión23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.53
Real Unión
0.95

Cultural Leonesa creates 61% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.41
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.91
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
77%
Cultural Leonesa or Real Unión
74%
Draw or Real Unión
49%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
26%
Real Unión wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
78%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
45%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
20%
Real Unión 1+ goals
61%
Real Unión 2+ goals
25%
Real Unión 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
68%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
51%
level
26%
Real Unión scores more
23%

Cultural Leonesa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 79% over 2.5)
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Leonesa
DLWLD
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cultural Leonesa face Real Unión (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Cultural Leonesa hosting Real Unión. Match starts April 18, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.