Cultural Leonesa 0–2 Linares Deportivo

Cultural Leonesa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Linares Deportivo

4/2/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cultural Leonesa49%

×Draw25%

Linares Deportivo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.04

Cultural Leonesa

1.56

Linares Deportivo

1.04

Cultural Leonesa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 18 away

1.41

creates per match

1.17

0.91

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.41

Linares Deportivo

1.17

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.91

Linares Deportivo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

75%

Cultural Leonesa or Linares Deportivo

75%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

51%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

25%

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

79%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

46%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

21%

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

65%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

28%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

66%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Linares Deportivo attack 1.17 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

49%

level

25%

Linares Deportivo scores more

25%

Cultural Leonesa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff