Cultural Leonesa 2–0 Haro Deportivo: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Haro Deportivo

Julián Luque 83'

A. Kawaya 54'

11/17/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa58%

×Draw25%

Haro Deportivo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchHaro Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.76

Cultural Leonesa

1.62

Haro Deportivo

0.76

Cultural Leonesa creates 113% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

1.92

creates per match

0.89

0.62

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.92

Haro Deportivo

0.89

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.62

Haro Deportivo

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Haro Deportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

83%

Cultural Leonesa or Haro Deportivo

75%

Draw or Haro Deportivo

42%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

31%

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

80%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

48%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

22%

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

53%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

18%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

77%

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.62

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

58%

level

25%

Haro Deportivo scores more

17%

Cultural Leonesa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

A. Kawaya

63'

Álex Valiño← Mario Urrecho

72'

G. Gudiño← Dani Pichín

80'

I. Dieng← Esteve Monterde

82'

Julián Luque← Menudo

83'

Julián Luque

87'

Iván Arana← Mikel Bueno

89'

Estellés← A. Kawaya

Cultural

Haro

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kawaya

Manager: José Manuel Aira

72'▲G. Gudiño←▼Dani Pichín

82'▲Julián Luque←▼Menudo

89'▲Estellés←▼A. Kawaya

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

GudiñoLuqueEstellésMartínezMontesGiffardBenito

Manager: Aitor Calle

63'▲Álex Valiño←▼Mario Urrecho

80'▲I. Dieng←▼Esteve Monterde

87'▲Iván Arana←▼Mikel Bueno

Haro Deportivo substitutes

ValiñoDiengAranaMedranoElíasCallePirri

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Haro Deportivo

Cultural Leonesa beat Haro Deportivo 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 17, 2019.

Goals: A. Kawaya (54'), Julián Luque (83').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.

Cultural Leonesa vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Haro Deportivo