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Cultural Leonesa vs Deportivo Alavés II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
CANC
00:00
Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
3/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa66%
×Draw22%
Deportivo Alavés II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.85
Deportivo Alavés II
0.67

Cultural Leonesa creates 176% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.92
Deportivo Alavés II
0.71

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.62
Deportivo Alavés II
1.79

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
87%
Cultural Leonesa or Deportivo Alavés II
78%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés II
34%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
39%
Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
84%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
55%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
28%
Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
49%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
15%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
84%
Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.85

Deportivo Alavés II attack 0.71 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
66%
level
22%
Deportivo Alavés II scores more
13%

Cultural Leonesa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cultural Leonesa host Deportivo Alavés II

March 29, 2020: Cultural Leonesa take on Deportivo Alavés II in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cultural Leonesa host Deportivo Alavés II at Estadio Municipal Reino de León.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.