Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Celta de Vigo II

Cultural Leonesa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Celta de Vigo II

Percan 15'

Gael Alonso 75'

4/30/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Cultural Leonesa42%

×Draw27%

Celta de Vigo II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.12

Cultural Leonesa

1.35

Celta de Vigo II

1.12

Cultural Leonesa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 120 away

1.41

creates per match

1.33

0.91

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.41

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.91

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

69%

Cultural Leonesa or Celta de Vigo II

73%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

58%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

19%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

74%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

39%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

15%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

67%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

31%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

58%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

42%

level

27%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

31%

Cultural Leonesa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Percan

39'

Lauti

42'

I. Lopez

46'

Hugo Sotelo← San Bartolomé

46'

Martín Conde← Iván López

56'

Raúl Blanco← C. Montes

62'

Joseba Muguruza← Cristian Pérez

67'

N. Obolskiy

72'

Manu Garrido← L. de León

75'

Gael Alonso

80'

A. Kawaya← Roberto Alarcón

87'

Claudio Medina← N. Obolskiy

88'

Martín Calderón← Damián Rodríguez

89'

C. Tincho

90'

A. Kawaya

90+2'

Manu

Cultural

Celta

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Isra Martínez

62'▲Joseba Muguruza←▼Cristian Pérez

80'▲A. Kawaya←▼Roberto Alarcón

87'▲Claudio Medina←▼N. Obolskiy

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

MuguruzaKawayaMedinaMatthäiCruzLópezBallestéVallecillo

Manager: Claudio Giráldez

46'▲Hugo Sotelo←▼San Bartolomé

46'▲Martín Conde←▼Iván López

56'▲Raúl Blanco←▼C. Montes

72'▲Manu Garrido←▼L. de León

88'▲Martín Calderón←▼Damián Rodríguez

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

SoteloCondeBlancoGarridoCalderónWauthierDomínguezRodríguezDurán

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Celta de Vigo II

Cultural Leonesa and Celta de Vigo II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 30, 2023.

Goals: Percan (15'), Gael Alonso (75').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.

Cultural Leonesa vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Celta de Vigo II