Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Burgos: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos

Héctor Hernández 69' (pen)

Eneko Undabarrena 50'

11/29/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cultural Leonesa40%

×Draw31%

Burgos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.87

Cultural Leonesa

1.08

Burgos

0.87

Cultural Leonesa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 12 away

1.41

creates per match

0.83

0.91

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.41

Burgos

0.83

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.91

Burgos

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

71%

Cultural Leonesa or Burgos

69%

Draw or Burgos

60%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

16%

Burgos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

66%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

29%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

10%

Burgos 1+ goals

58%

Burgos 2+ goals

22%

Burgos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

58%

Burgos (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Burgos defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.08

Burgos attack 0.83 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

40%

level

31%

Burgos scores more

29%

Cultural Leonesa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Eneko Undabarrena

63'

Galder Cerrajería← Rubén Lobato

65'

Héctor Hernández← Julián Luque

65'

José Carlos← Toni Abad

69'

Héctor HernándezPenalty

77'

Javi Gómez← Claudio Medina

83'

Marc Rovirola← Sergio Marcos

87'

M. Rosales← Saúl Berjón

87'

Roberto Alarcón← Miki Muñoz

Cultural

Burgos

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Cabello

65'▲Héctor Hernández←▼Julián Luque

65'▲José Carlos←▼Toni Abad

83'▲Marc Rovirola←▼Sergio Marcos

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

HernándezCarlosRovirolaFuentesSánchezAraújoDiarraTheresin

Manager: Julián Calero

63'▲Galder Cerrajería←▼Rubén Lobato

77'▲Javi Gómez←▼Claudio Medina

87'▲M. Rosales←▼Saúl Berjón

87'▲Roberto Alarcón←▼Miki Muñoz

Burgos substitutes

CerrajeríaGómezRosalesAlarcónCórdobaPisculichiLópezLeak