Cultural Leonesa 4–0 Burgos: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Burgos

Dioni 89'

Dani Pichín 75'

Julián Luque 40'

Héctor Rodas 11'

9/22/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa60%

×Draw23%

Burgos17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.81

Cultural Leonesa

1.77

Burgos

0.81

Cultural Leonesa creates 119% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.00

0.62

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.92

Burgos

1.00

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.62

Burgos

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

83%

Cultural Leonesa or Burgos

77%

Draw or Burgos

40%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

34%

Burgos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

83%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

53%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

26%

Burgos 1+ goals

56%

Burgos 2+ goals

19%

Burgos 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

78%

Burgos (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Burgos defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Burgos attack 1.00 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

60%

level

23%

Burgos scores more

17%

Cultural Leonesa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Héctor Rodas

40'

Julián Luque

56'

Marcelo Ribeiro← Carlos Indiano

64'

R. Fernández← G. Gudiño

69'

D. Wilson← Toché

74'

Dani Pichín← A. Kawaya

74'

Andrés González← L. Pisculichi

75'

Dani Pichín

80'

V. Theresin← Héctor Rodas

89'

Dioni

Cultural

Burgos

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: José Manuel Aira

64'▲R. Fernández←▼G. Gudiño

74'▲Dani Pichín←▼A. Kawaya

80'▲V. Theresin←▼Héctor Rodas

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

FernándezPichínTheresinMontesGiffardMenudoBenito

Manager: Fernando Estévez

56'▲Marcelo Ribeiro←▼Carlos Indiano

69'▲D. Wilson←▼Toché

74'▲Andrés González←▼L. Pisculichi

Burgos substitutes

RibeiroWilsonGonzálezAlbísteguiKleberLópezLeak