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Cultural Leonesa vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
1/29/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cultural Leonesa49%
×Draw28%
Badajoz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.34
Badajoz
0.83

Cultural Leonesa creates 61% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 37 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.41
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.91
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
77%
Cultural Leonesa or Badajoz
72%
Draw or Badajoz
51%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
23%
Badajoz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
74%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
39%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
15%
Badajoz 1+ goals
56%
Badajoz 2+ goals
20%
Badajoz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
68%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
49%
level
28%
Badajoz scores more
23%

Cultural Leonesa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Badajoz

Cultural Leonesa beat Badajoz 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.