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Cultural Leonesa vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
Preview
15:00
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
5/23/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38
Big match
48%
Cultural Leonesa
model favours
48%27%26%
1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Cultural Leonesa48%
×Draw27%
Athletic Club II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.43
Athletic Club II
0.97

Cultural Leonesa creates 47% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.41
Athletic Club II
1.02

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.91
Athletic Club II
1.45

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
74%
Cultural Leonesa or Athletic Club II
73%
Draw or Athletic Club II
52%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
23%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
76%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
42%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
17%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
62%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
25%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
65%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
48%
level
27%
Athletic Club II scores more
26%

Cultural Leonesa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Leonesa
DLWLD
II
LWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cultural Leonesa face Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Cultural Leonesa hosting Athletic Club II. Match starts May 23, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.