Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Athletic Club II vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
1/25/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Athletic Club II40%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club II
1.22
Cultural Leonesa
1.07

Athletic Club II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

creates per match

Athletic Club II
1.12
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Athletic Club II
0.98
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw
68%
Athletic Club II or Cultural Leonesa
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
60%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+
17%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals
70%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
34%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
12%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
66%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
29%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
55%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Athletic Club II scores more
40%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
32%

Athletic Club II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic Club II vs Cultural Leonesa

Cultural Leonesa beat Athletic Club II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 25, 2022.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 in Lezama.