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Cultural Leonesa vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
CANC
22:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
5/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa56%
×Draw25%
Arenas Getxo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.59
Arenas Getxo
0.81

Cultural Leonesa creates 96% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.92
Arenas Getxo
1.00

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.62
Arenas Getxo
1.26

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
81%
Cultural Leonesa or Arenas Getxo
75%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
44%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
30%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
80%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
47%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
21%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
56%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
19%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
75%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.59

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
56%
level
25%
Arenas Getxo scores more
19%

Cultural Leonesa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cultural Leonesa host Arenas Getxo

May 16, 2020: Cultural Leonesa take on Arenas Getxo in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cultural Leonesa host Arenas Getxo at Estadio Municipal Reino de León.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.