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Cultural Leonesa II vs Salamanca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Salamanca II
Salamanca II
2/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Cultural Leonesa II43%
×Draw27%
Salamanca II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa II
1.38
Salamanca II
1.11

Cultural Leonesa II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 61 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.42
Salamanca II
1.00

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.23
Salamanca II
1.34

finishing

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par
Salamanca II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa II ↓

Salamanca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa II or draw
70%
Cultural Leonesa II or Salamanca II
73%
Draw or Salamanca II
57%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
20%
Salamanca II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
75%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
40%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
16%
Salamanca II 1+ goals
67%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
30%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
59%
Salamanca II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Salamanca II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.42 + Salamanca II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Salamanca II attack 1.00 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cultural Leonesa II scores more
43%
level
27%
Salamanca II scores more
30%

Cultural Leonesa II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Cultural Leonesa II 1–0 Salamanca II

Cultural Leonesa II beat Salamanca II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro in León.