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Cultural Leonesa II vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
CANC
22:00
Real Burgos
Real Burgos
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 40Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cultural Leonesa II50%
×Draw24%
Real Burgos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa II
1.66
Real Burgos
1.11

Cultural Leonesa II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.42
Real Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.23
Real Burgos
1.90

finishing

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par
Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa II ↓

Real Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa II or draw
75%
Cultural Leonesa II or Real Burgos
76%
Draw or Real Burgos
50%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
27%
Real Burgos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
81%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
49%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
23%
Real Burgos 1+ goals
67%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
30%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
66%
Real Burgos (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.42 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.66

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cultural Leonesa II scores more
50%
level
24%
Real Burgos scores more
25%

Cultural Leonesa II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cultural Leonesa II vs Real Burgos — Match Preview

Cultural Leonesa II face Real Burgos on May 2, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cultural Leonesa II host Real Burgos at Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.