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Cultural Leonesa II vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
1/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 17Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cultural Leonesa II51%
×Draw26%
Colegios Diocesanos23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa II
1.50
Colegios Diocesanos
0.90

Cultural Leonesa II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 66 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.42
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.23
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa II ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa II or draw
77%
Cultural Leonesa II or Colegios Diocesanos
74%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
49%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
26%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
78%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
44%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
19%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
59%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
23%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
69%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.42 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cultural Leonesa II scores more
51%
level
26%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
23%

Cultural Leonesa II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Cultural Leonesa II 1–0 Colegios Diocesanos

Cultural Leonesa II beat Colegios Diocesanos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro in León.