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Cultural Leonesa II vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cultural Leonesa II54%
×Draw24%
Ciudad Rodrigo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa II
1.71
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.98

Cultural Leonesa II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.42
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.74

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.23
Ciudad Rodrigo
2.00

finishing

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par
Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa II ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa II or draw
78%
Cultural Leonesa II or Ciudad Rodrigo
76%
Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo
46%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
30%
Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
82%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
51%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
24%
Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
62%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
26%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
72%
Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.42 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cultural Leonesa II scores more
54%
level
24%
Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
22%

Cultural Leonesa II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Cultural Leonesa II 4–4 Ciudad Rodrigo

Cultural Leonesa II and Ciudad Rodrigo drew 4-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.