Cultural Leonesa II 1–1 Bupolsa: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa II

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bupolsa

10/5/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cultural Leonesa II45%

×Draw27%

Bupolsa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural Leonesa IIExpected goals in this matchBupolsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.02

Cultural Leonesa II

1.39

Bupolsa

1.02

Cultural Leonesa II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 31 away

1.42

creates per match

0.81

1.23

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa II

1.42

Bupolsa

0.81

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa II

1.23

Bupolsa

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Bupolsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa II ↓

Bupolsa →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa II or draw

72%

Cultural Leonesa II or Bupolsa

73%

Draw or Bupolsa

55%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+

22%

Bupolsa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals

75%

Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals

40%

Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals

16%

Bupolsa 1+ goals

64%

Bupolsa 2+ goals

27%

Bupolsa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)

62%

Bupolsa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Bupolsa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.42 + Bupolsa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bupolsa attack 0.81 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cultural Leonesa II scores more

45%

level

27%

Bupolsa scores more

28%

Cultural Leonesa II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Cultural Leonesa II 1–1 Bupolsa

Cultural Leonesa II and Bupolsa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro in León.

Cultural Leonesa II vs Bupolsa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Cultural Leonesa II 1–1 Bupolsa