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Cultural Cebrereña vs Numancia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Numancia II
Numancia II
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Estadio El Mancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cultural Cebrereña43%
×Draw28%
Numancia II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Cebrereña
1.29
Numancia II
1.00

Cultural Cebrereña creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 76 away

creates per match

Cultural Cebrereña
1.00
Numancia II
0.95

allows per match

Cultural Cebrereña
1.06
Numancia II
1.58

finishing

Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par
Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Cebrereña ↓

Numancia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cultural Cebrereña or draw
71%
Cultural Cebrereña or Numancia II
72%
Draw or Numancia II
57%

Winning margin

Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
20%
Numancia II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
72%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
37%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
14%
Numancia II 1+ goals
63%
Numancia II 2+ goals
26%
Numancia II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
60%
Numancia II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Cebrereña at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Cebrereña attack 1.00 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Numancia II attack 0.95 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cultural Cebrereña scores more
43%
level
28%
Numancia II scores more
29%

Cultural Cebrereña at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cultural Cebrereña will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cultural Cebrereña vs Numancia II

Numancia II beat Cultural Cebrereña 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Mancho in Cebreros.