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Cultural Cebrereña vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio El Mancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cultural Cebrereña42%
×Draw28%
Becerril Campos30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Cebrereña
1.29
Becerril Campos
1.04

Cultural Cebrereña creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 97 away

creates per match

Cultural Cebrereña
1.00
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Cultural Cebrereña
1.06
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Cebrereña ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cultural Cebrereña or draw
70%
Cultural Cebrereña or Becerril Campos
72%
Draw or Becerril Campos
58%

Winning margin

Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
19%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
72%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
37%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
14%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
65%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
28%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
58%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Cebrereña at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Cebrereña attack 1.00 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cultural Cebrereña scores more
42%
level
28%
Becerril Campos scores more
30%

Cultural Cebrereña at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cultural Cebrereña will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cultural Cebrereña vs Becerril Campos

Cultural Cebrereña and Becerril Campos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Mancho in Cebreros.