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Culter vs Deveronvale — FA Cup 2019

Culter
Culter
AET
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Deveronvale
Deveronvale
9/23/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundCrombie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Culter49%
×Draw22%
Deveronvale29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Culter
2.00
Deveronvale
1.50

Culter creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Culter
2.67
Deveronvale
1.67

allows per match

Culter
1.33
Deveronvale
1.33

finishing

Culter+0.00on par
Deveronvale+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Culter ↓

Deveronvale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Culter or draw
71%
Culter or Deveronvale
78%
Draw or Deveronvale
51%

Winning margin

Culter wins by 2+
28%
Deveronvale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Culter 1+ goals
86%
Culter 2+ goals
59%
Culter 3+ goals
32%
Deveronvale 1+ goals
78%
Deveronvale 2+ goals
44%
Deveronvale 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Culter (draw refunded)
63%
Deveronvale (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Culter at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Deveronvale away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Culter attack 2.67 + Deveronvale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Deveronvale attack 1.67 + Culter defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Culter scores more
49%
level
22%
Deveronvale scores more
29%

Culter at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Culter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Culter 3–4 Deveronvale

Deveronvale beat Culter 4-3 in FA Cup on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Crombie Park in Peterculter.