Cukaricki 2–2 Železničar Pančevo: Result & Stats

Cukaricki

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Železničar Pančevo

V. Radosavljević 66'

U. Miladinović 42'

B. Knežević 31'

S. Cvetković 22'

5/23/2025

Super Liga · Relegation Round - 7Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Cukaricki52%

×Draw25%

Železničar Pančevo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CukarickiExpected goals in this matchŽelezničar Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.01

Cukaricki

1.64

Železničar Pančevo

1.01

Cukaricki creates 62% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 57 away

1.77

creates per match

1.12

0.89

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Cukaricki

1.77

Železničar Pančevo

1.12

allows per match

Cukaricki

0.89

Železničar Pančevo

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Železničar Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw

77%

Cukaricki or Železničar Pančevo

75%

Draw or Železničar Pančevo

48%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+

28%

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals

81%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

49%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

23%

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

64%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

27%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

69%

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.64

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.12 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cukaricki scores more

52%

level

25%

Železničar Pančevo scores more

23%

Cukaricki at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

86

V. Radosavljević

Cukaricki · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

S. Cvetković

31'

B. Knežević↳ S. Pirgić

42'

U. Miladinović↳ V. Radosavljević

46'

M. Cvetković← L. Đorđević

60'

M. Spasojević← M. Ćurić

66'

V. Radosavljević↳ V. Serafimović

72'

S. Tedić← M. Cvetković

76'

J. Jevremović← S. Cvetković

77'

A. Yusif← N. Jovanović

86'

L. Vidić← B. Sekulić

87'

L. Tufegdžić← F. Matijašević

87'

D. Novićević← J. Milosavljević

88'

Branislav Knežević

90+1'

J. Vojnović← U. Miladinović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CukarickiŽelezničar

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots9

3Corners1

8Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots9

4On Target3

4Off Target4

1Blocked2

7Inside Box4

2Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

552Total Passes389

466Accurate Passes308

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

8Offsides0