Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cukaricki vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2026

Cukaricki
Cukaricki
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
9/21/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 9Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Cukaricki45%
×Draw25%
TSC Backa Topola30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cukaricki
1.54
TSC Backa Topola
1.22

Cukaricki creates 26% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 125 away

creates per match

Cukaricki
1.77
TSC Backa Topola
1.54

allows per match

Cukaricki
0.89
TSC Backa Topola
1.31

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw
70%
Cukaricki or TSC Backa Topola
75%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
55%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+
22%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals
79%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
45%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
20%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
70%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
34%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)
60%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.54 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cukaricki scores more
45%
level
25%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
30%

Cukaricki at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Cukaricki 4–2 TSC Backa Topola

Cukaricki beat TSC Backa Topola 4-2 in Super Liga on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion na Banovom brdu in Belgrade.