Cukaricki 0–1 Slovácko: Result & Stats

Cukaricki

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Slovácko

M. Havlik 14'

1/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cukaricki23%

×Draw27%

Slovácko49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CukarickiExpected goals in this matchSlovácko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.39

Cukaricki

0.86

Slovácko

1.39

Slovácko creates 62% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

0.83

creates per match

1.60

1.17

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Cukaricki

0.83

Slovácko

1.60

allows per match

Cukaricki

1.17

Slovácko

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par

Slovácko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Slovácko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw

51%

Cukaricki or Slovácko

73%

Draw or Slovácko

77%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+

8%

Slovácko wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals

58%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

21%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

6%

Slovácko 1+ goals

75%

Slovácko 2+ goals

40%

Slovácko 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

32%

Slovácko (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Slovácko away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 0.83 + Slovácko defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Slovácko attack 1.60 + Cukaricki defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cukaricki scores more

23%

level

27%

Slovácko scores more

49%

Slovácko at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slovácko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Havlik

Cukaricki

Slovácko

29

2

3

4

5

6

9

14

20

⚽

23

28

28

27

4

26

3

77

14

7

17

9

88

Manager: Slaven Kovacevic

Cukaricki substitutes

Manager: Roman Skuhravy

Slovácko substitutes

99Urban18Mulder8Tetour24Ndubuisi15Blahut10Travnik22Ouanda11Petrzela21Krmencik