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Cukaricki vs Radnik Surdulica — Super Liga 2026

Cukaricki
Cukaricki
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
4/18/2026Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Group - 31Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Cukaricki54%
×Draw25%
Radnik Surdulica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cukaricki
1.63
Radnik Surdulica
0.91

Cukaricki creates 79% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 128 away

creates per match

Cukaricki
1.77
Radnik Surdulica
0.92

allows per match

Cukaricki
0.89
Radnik Surdulica
1.48

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par
Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw
79%
Cukaricki or Radnik Surdulica
75%
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
46%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+
29%
Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals
80%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
48%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
22%
Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
60%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
23%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)
72%
Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.63

Radnik Surdulica attack 0.92 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cukaricki scores more
54%
level
25%
Radnik Surdulica scores more
21%

Cukaricki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cukaricki vs Radnik Surdulica

Cukaricki and Radnik Surdulica drew 2-2 in Super Liga on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion na Banovom brdu in Belgrade.