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Cukaricki vs Mladost Novi Sad — Super Liga 2018

Cukaricki
Cukaricki
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
11/13/2022Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 19Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Cukaricki54%
×Draw26%
Mladost Novi Sad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cukaricki
1.48
Mladost Novi Sad
0.77

Cukaricki creates 92% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cukaricki
1.77
Mladost Novi Sad
0.65

allows per match

Cukaricki
0.89
Mladost Novi Sad
1.20

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw
80%
Cukaricki or Mladost Novi Sad
74%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
46%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+
28%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals
77%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
43%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
19%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
54%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
18%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)
73%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cukaricki scores more
54%
level
26%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
20%

Cukaricki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cukaricki vs Mladost Novi Sad

Cukaricki beat Mladost Novi Sad 2-0 in Super Liga on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion na Banovom brdu in Beograd.