Cukaricki 3–1 FK Vozdovac: Result & Stats

Cukaricki

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FK Vozdovac

3/19/2023

Super Liga · Round 27Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Cukaricki57%

×Draw24%

FK Vozdovac19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CukarickiExpected goals in this matchFK Vozdovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.89

Cukaricki

1.71

FK Vozdovac

0.89

Cukaricki creates 92% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 109 away

1.77

creates per match

0.89

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Cukaricki

1.77

FK Vozdovac

0.89

allows per match

Cukaricki

0.89

FK Vozdovac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

FK Vozdovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw

81%

Cukaricki or FK Vozdovac

76%

Draw or FK Vozdovac

43%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+

31%

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals

82%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

51%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

24%

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals

59%

FK Vozdovac 2+ goals

22%

FK Vozdovac 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

74%

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cukaricki scores more

57%

level

24%

FK Vozdovac scores more

19%

Cukaricki at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff