Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cukaricki vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV — Super Liga 2026

Cukaricki
Cukaricki
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
11/29/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 17Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Cukaricki54%
×Draw25%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cukaricki
1.65
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
0.93

Cukaricki creates 77% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 145 away

creates per match

Cukaricki
1.77
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
0.97

allows per match

Cukaricki
0.89
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.53

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw
79%
Cukaricki or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
75%
Draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
46%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+
29%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals
81%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
49%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
23%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
61%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
24%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)
72%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.97 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cukaricki scores more
54%
level
25%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
21%

Cukaricki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Cukaricki 1–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV beat Cukaricki 2-1 in Super Liga on November 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion na Banovom brdu in Beograd.