Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cukaricki vs Dinamo Vranje — Super Liga 2018

Cukaricki
Cukaricki
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
10/6/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 11Stadion na Banovom brdu (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cukaricki69%
×Draw20%
Dinamo Vranje11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cukaricki
1.97
Dinamo Vranje
0.63

Cukaricki creates 213% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cukaricki
1.77
Dinamo Vranje
0.37

allows per match

Cukaricki
0.89
Dinamo Vranje
2.16

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw
89%
Cukaricki or Dinamo Vranje
80%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
31%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+
43%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals
86%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
58%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
31%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
47%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
13%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)
86%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.97

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cukaricki scores more
69%
level
20%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
11%

Cukaricki at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Cukaricki 6–1 Dinamo Vranje

Cukaricki beat Dinamo Vranje 6-1 in Super Liga on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion na Banovom brdu (Beograd).