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Cukaricki vs Backa — Super Liga 2018

Cukaricki
Cukaricki
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Backa
Backa
12/5/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 19Stadion na Banovom brdu (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cukaricki67%
×Draw21%
Backa13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cukaricki
1.94
Backa
0.70

Cukaricki creates 177% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cukaricki
1.77
Backa
0.50

allows per match

Cukaricki
0.89
Backa
2.11

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw
87%
Cukaricki or Backa
79%
Draw or Backa
33%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+
41%
Backa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals
86%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
58%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
30%
Backa 1+ goals
50%
Backa 2+ goals
16%
Backa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)
84%
Backa (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

Backa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + Backa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.94

Backa attack 0.50 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cukaricki scores more
67%
level
21%
Backa scores more
13%

Cukaricki at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Cukaricki 3–0 Backa

Cukaricki beat Backa 3-0 in Super Liga on December 5, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion na Banovom brdu (Beograd).