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Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2026

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
12/8/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 38Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Cuiaba43%
×Draw28%
Vasco DA Gama29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.27
Vasco DA Gama
0.98

Cuiaba creates 30% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 123 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
0.97
Vasco DA Gama
0.91

allows per match

Cuiaba
1.05
Vasco DA Gama
1.57

finishing

Cuiaba+0.00on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
71%
Cuiaba or Vasco DA Gama
72%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
57%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
19%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
72%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
36%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
14%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
62%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
26%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
60%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 0.97 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.91 + Cuiaba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cuiaba scores more
43%
level
28%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
29%

Cuiaba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cuiaba 1–2 Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama beat Cuiaba 2-1 in Serie A on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.