Cuiaba 5–0 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cuiaba

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Fortaleza EC

6/16/2024

Serie A · Round 9Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Cuiaba41%

×Draw28%

Fortaleza EC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.04

Cuiaba

1.25

Fortaleza EC

1.04

Cuiaba creates 20% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 133 away

0.97

creates per match

1.02

1.05

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Cuiaba

0.97

Fortaleza EC

1.02

allows per match

Cuiaba

1.05

Fortaleza EC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuiaba+0.00on par

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

69%

Cuiaba or Fortaleza EC

72%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

59%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

18%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

71%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

36%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

13%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

65%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

28%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

57%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.53 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 0.97 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fortaleza EC attack 1.02 + Cuiaba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cuiaba scores more

41%

level

28%

Fortaleza EC scores more

31%

Cuiaba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff