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Cuiaba vs Bahia — Serie A 2026

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bahia
Bahia
7/8/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 14Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Cuiaba43%
×Draw28%
Bahia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.29
Bahia
1.02

Cuiaba creates 26% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 141 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
0.97
Bahia
1.00

allows per match

Cuiaba
1.05
Bahia
1.60

finishing

Cuiaba+0.00on par
Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
71%
Cuiaba or Bahia
72%
Draw or Bahia
57%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
19%
Bahia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
72%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
37%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
14%
Bahia 1+ goals
64%
Bahia 2+ goals
27%
Bahia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
59%
Bahia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

Bahia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 0.97 + Bahia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bahia attack 1.00 + Cuiaba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cuiaba scores more
43%
level
28%
Bahia scores more
29%

Cuiaba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cuiaba 1–1 Bahia

Cuiaba and Bahia drew 1-1 in Serie A on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.