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Cuiaba vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Avai
Avai
4/11/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 2Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Cuiaba47%
×Draw27%
Avai26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.42
Avai
0.99

Cuiaba creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
1.50
Avai
1.02

allows per match

Cuiaba
0.96
Avai
1.34

finishing

Cuiaba-0.56scores less
Avai-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
74%
Cuiaba or Avai
73%
Draw or Avai
53%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
23%
Avai wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
76%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
41%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
17%
Avai 1+ goals
63%
Avai 2+ goals
26%
Avai 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
64%
Avai (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.96 · 17 matches

Avai away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.34 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.50 + Avai defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Avai attack 1.02 + Cuiaba defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cuiaba scores more
47%
level
27%
Avai scores more
26%

Cuiaba at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Cuiaba 2–2 Avai

Cuiaba and Avai drew 2-2 in Serie B on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá.