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Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense — Serie A 2026

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense
7/28/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 20Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Cuiaba39%
×Draw30%
Atletico Paranaense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.14
Atletico Paranaense
0.98

Cuiaba creates 16% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 141 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
0.97
Atletico Paranaense
0.91

allows per match

Cuiaba
1.05
Atletico Paranaense
1.30

finishing

Cuiaba+0.00on par
Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Atletico Paranaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
69%
Cuiaba or Atletico Paranaense
70%
Draw or Atletico Paranaense
61%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
68%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
32%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
11%
Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
26%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
56%
Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.30 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 0.97 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.91 + Cuiaba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cuiaba scores more
39%
level
30%
Atletico Paranaense scores more
31%

Cuiaba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cuiaba 1–2 Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense beat Cuiaba 2-1 in Serie A on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.